Yearly Archives: 2022

Federal Reserve: Lords of Easy Money

Federal Reserve: Lords of Easy Money

Book The Lords of Easy MoneyThe New York Times called it “A Fascinating Page-Turner Made From an Unlikely Subject: Federal Reserve Policy” and it was exciting to read as inflation jumped so high that the Federal Reserve had to (1) bump up the interest rate a couple of days ago, (2) announce that there would be further interest rate increases, and (3) that the Fed would start off-loading about a trillion dollars a year from their “quantitative easing” reserves of NINE trillion dollars. If they continue at that rate, the treasury bills they hoovered-up would be cleared from their books by the end of this decade.

Now I know how to read an FOMC statement. Now I understand where the money came from that John Doerr was investing in environmentally-conscious startups. How interesting that his announcement of a One-Billion-Dollar-Plus donation to Stanford University practically coincided with the increase in the Federal Funds Target Rate. Now I understand that inflation is more than the price of bread, that there is also “asset inflation” like the price of houses and Picassos. “Quantitative Easing” pushed so much money into the hands of Venture Capitalists and big banks that they poured it into assets in an effort to create some positive yield, necessary for the pension funds and other investors that had built interest gains into their business models. The pension funds could not just put the money in the bank and earn interest — the interest rate was Zero and pretty much had been starting in 2009. The Feds had tried to raise the interest rate, but Covid put an end to that and we were back at zero. It was crucial, however, to avoid deflation during the two-year Covid shutdown.

Fed Funds Target Rate

The trick is to keep employment high, inflation at about 2%, and Federal interest rates at about 4-5%, but it’s like trying to manage a three-way see-saw. Right now, the economy seems to be strong and almost back to where it was before the pandemic, with robust employment. Jay Powell said, “We have essentially interest rates, the balance sheet and forward guidance, and they’re famously blunt tools. They’re not capable of surgical precision.”

What I really enjoyed about this very-readable book is learning about these three tools, what they do, what their unintended consequences can me, and the politics and drama that went into the policy. The abrasion between the academics like Ben Bernanke and those in the marketplace like Steve Mnuchin and Jay Powell is fascinating. It also made clear that fiscal policy is supposed to be made by Congress, such as allocating money to repair the crumbling infrastructure as a way to inject liquidity into the marketplace. But in the face of congressional gridlock, the Fed has been forced to try to play a symphony with its blunt tools.

The “quantitive easing” really boosted asset values, like houses and stock market portfolios, much of which was purchased with borrowed money. This increased the “wealth gap” between investors in the 1% and the rest of us. When interest rates go up, it is reasonable for investors to unload high-risk investments like start-up companies, so the stock market will go down. As interest rates go up and stock prices come down, highly-leveraged investors will face margin calls that will increase the speed of the market descent. This may lead to a very unhappy outcome in the mid-term elections later this year.

Excellent book. Highly recommended!

Fern Lake: Ham and Ticks

Fern Lake: Ham and Ticks

On May 5 the Saunterers trekked to Fern Lake. I turned the wrong way in Glen Ellen and nearly missed them. The Bennett Valley route takes less of a toll on my electric-miles, maybe because there are so many hills to coast down and replenish my range. Holt Road is in the Developmental Center.

I caught up to them and wound up at the front of the group because everyone else stepped back. The high grass is a likely source of ticks and my hiking buddies did not want to become their new home. Photo by Bob Martin.

This is how it looked to me from the front of the pack. It is a beautiful spot.

Fern Lake Trail Marker

Ham and Ticks

We came to a crossroad with a marker that said “Carolyn Day.” Hiker Carolyn said she already had her picture taken with the marker, so I asked Bob to take mine. I gave him the full beam smile and when he showed me the shot on his phone, I said, “We should call this ‘Ham and Ticks.'” I got a laugh.

Afterwards we went to the Glen Ellen market for lunch and had a vigorous discussion about how RBG’s failure to retire while Obama was in office may have contributed to the impending repeal of Roe v. Wade. We talked about the collapse of the Southern District of New York’s case against Trump. Jill, from Long Island, pointed out that money and political clout might have been a factor in the collapse. We discussed packing the court vs. granting statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. We talked about mental health in the context of the shocking suicide of Naomi Judd just before she was voted into the Hall of Fame. It is nice to have adults to chat with.

Seedlings 2022

Seedlings 2022

Here’s a photo of my effort to sprout some seeds for my garden. This year, at Joyce’s suggestion, I bought some Miracle Gro Seed Starting Potting Mix. Using scissors, I poked holes in the bottom of each egg crate cup, then filled with soil and added seeds I had soaked for a few days. Some seeds were saved from food: pasilla peppers and spaghetti squash. Some were purchased last year: leeks and kale.

Seed Starting Mix in the Egg Crates

Update May 6

The kale seeds have sprouted! I feel like a new mother.

Speed and Scale by John Doerr

Speed and Scale by John Doerr

Venture capitalist John Doerr’s book with an action plan for solving our climate crisis. Opened my eyes about how hard it is going to continue to be. Mentioned Elizabeth Kolbert’s hastily-written “Under a White Sky” which described a strategy to cool the earth by dispersing tiny light-reflecting particles like diamonds.

Doerr says, “Be ruthless in identifying the key risk up front — and removing it. Consider:”

  1. Technology Risk – Does it actually work?
  2. Market Risk – Does it stand out?
  3. Consumer Risk – Will customers actually buy?
  4. Regulatory Risk – Will it get approved?
  • You are always raising money. Recruit a range of investors who can write large checks including corporate partners, foundations, and governments.
  • Costs are king; performance matters. Consumers won’t pay more for an inferior product no matter how “green.” It must be superior, or at least equivalent: Tesla, Beyond Meat, Nest.
  • Own the relationship with your customer. Sustain direct relationships with end buyers.
  • Incumbents will fight. The disrupted markets are built on the premise of free-of-charge carbon pollution.

Update May 5, 2022

John Doerr, a venture capitalist, and his wife, Ann Doerr, are making a $1.1 billion donation to Stanford for a new school focusing on sustainability and climate change.

Apple Blossom Art Show

Apple Blossom Art Show

Linda Loveland Reid took this snap of me standing next to one of her three paintings on display at the opening reception for the Apple Blossom Festival. Interestingly, in the main gallery adjacent at the Sebastopol Center for the Arts, a poem by Linda was on display next to the painting to which it referred — an example of Ekphrasis. Notice my “Covid hair” styled to hide the growing-out blonde tresses.

Photo by Linda Loveland Reid

Easter Chatter 2022

Easter Chatter 2022

Peggy sent us some old photos and this was the email chat on Easter morning.

This was taken around 1973 at a pig farm Dad rented for a month in Normandy (or Brittany), France.

Normandy Pig Farm

Greg Chris MR Dave Dad

Big French Pig

The pigs there were HUGE — like the size of cows.

The liner we had taken across the Atlantic dropped us at Cherbourg, France, and Helene’s sister Noelle was working nearby at a funny farm (she was doing her physician’s internship at a local hospital). Helene was staying somewhere close by and would visit Dad daily.

We would play bocci ball in the evenings and, when Helene wasn’t looking, Davy would drive her little deux chevaux around the yard. The stick shift came out of the dashboard.

Helene’s Deux Chevaux

 

 

 

The daffodil photo was taken at Trent Park, London, where Dad was working (before Chris worked there years later) during Dad’s and Gill’s honeymoon when Peggy was babysitting. MR said, “I think Christy is wearing a headband knitted by Timmy. (No, seriously, Timmy used to knit with multi-colored yarn.) And we were laughing because Chris was talking into the daffodil as if it were an old telephone.

Chris Talking Into Daffodil Phone

“We went to the zoo and were kicked out of the monkey exhibit because a monkey was jerking off,” Peg chimed in. “We all crammed into a tiny car and drove to Stonehenge.”

Stonehenge

Franky Sandra Greg MR Jeremy

The hottie with his arm around me? Mmm mm! Jeremy Ironside, New Zealand hottie who I met him on the ship. Called him up. He lived in South London, so took the tube up to visit while Peg & Billy Hutch were babysitting.
Jaysus — how many did we have in that green Renault 16?
Five in back + Peg & Bill Hutch in front. The steering wheel was on the English side, so that must be Peg’s long hair on Jeremy, because I remember Hutch was driving.

The girl to Greg’s right? Sandra Young. Last week she What’sApp’d about Tea for the Tillerman, a Cat Stevens album we used to listen to at that time 🎵”I’m being followed by a moon shadow” 🎶

Greg Frank MR Dave Chris Gill Dad in the Fall, 1976

Franky said, “The photo with Chris in the Navy uniform was taken in Shirlington, VA where we briefly lived [when we returned from France]. I was a senior at Bishop Ireton boys school and worked stock at Sloan’s Furniture. Later Dad and Gill moved again and I was housed by the Richardson family around the corner until I finished high school and went to Radford U.”

MR chimed in, “I was going to Northern Virginia Community College at that time.” [If Franky was a senior at Ireton, Greg must have been a junior.] “Greg was going to O’Connell, but Dad shipped him off to Connie & Dave’s [in Bellingham, Washington]. Around the same time, he put me on a Greyhound Bus (with rotten chicken he had cooked) to Peg’s in San Rafael.

“Dave, I believe, was the maintenance guy at the apartments in S. Arlington. Gill worked at the jewelry counter at Woodward & Lothrup. Dad discovered Sizzler Steakhouse, so put on all the lbs. he had lost in France.”

Chris said, “I was in D.C. for two weeks the end of September/October time 1976.”

California Funk Art – SVMA

California Funk Art – SVMA

About 12 of us visited the Sonoma Valley Museum of Art in the city of Sonoma to check out the work of Clayton Bailey and Tony Natsoulas. It is a small museum, but I think many of us were eager to explore again after two years of COVID isolation. This is the first trip I led and I forgot to take a group photo in the gallery. I was so happy Linda Loveland Reid offered to drive carpool — I was nervous and really appreciated the company and the ride. Linda made the cool flyer below.

We received many suggestions for lunch places and selected Hopmonk tavern, recommended by the gallery, because it is just down the street at 691 Broadway and can handle big groups. Here are a few of the nine or so who were there.

Other recommendations were The Red Grape 529 First St. West, Sunflower Cafe, El Dorado Kitchen, Sonoma Grill (fish), Oso (closed Wednesday, the day of our visit).

Saunterer Brunch April 2022

Saunterer Brunch April 2022

Saturday-Saunterers-April-2022

Front: Joe, Betty, Marsha, Eileen, Martha, Jane, Delores, Nicole, Anet.
Back Row: Graalfs, John, Jason, Wendy,, Bob


asparagus-saladBob’s wife, Eva, and their daughter, Susie, had just left for Sicily when Bob hosted a potluck get-together at his home. Because asparagus was in season, I wanted something to serve cold that would be easy to eat with a fork. No hand-twirling asparagus spears in hollandaise for people standing up holding plates! I combined two recipes from the Food Network to make asparagus-campanile-kalamata salad with honey mustard vinaigrette. It was good, and even better the next day. I think maybe people mistook it for ordinary bean salad. Next time I will buy three bunches of asparagus and use only the top halfs for the buffet dish, reserving the lower stalk for myself at home. I will slice on the diagonal a use a smaller red bowl and a tablespoon for a serving spoon. My gluten-free friends simply picked out the pasta. I ran out of time to sliver the kalamata olives so there were too few. It should be mostly asparagus tips, 1/3 pasta and 1/6 olives.

asparagus-recipeTo really look like asparagus on a crowded buffet table, it needs to be bright emerald and half “spear tops.” I should take it out of the boiling water as soon as it turns emerald. It will cook a few seconds more before cooling, and marinating it overnight will make it taste “cooked.” Marinating the pasta will also soften it, so cook it al dente. Chilled dishes should be a little crunchy. I substituted seasoned (salt and sugar) rice vinegar for white vinegar, and whole-seed Dijon for smooth which did not improve it. The honey is important for the body of the dressing so I am showing the original recipe because that’s probably the best.

2 lemons, juiced
2 tablespoons white wine vinegar
1 teaspoon honey
2 tablespoons smooth Dijon mustard
4 tablespooms olive oil

The video shows how to stiffen the stalks in an ice bath, poach them briefly, then plunge back in the ice bath again. The color and crunchiness of the asparagus is crucial for the attractive presentation. Leave some time to drain thoroughly so that you are dressing dry stalks. Cut on the diagonal. Cut off white, then cut in half and reserve bottoms for home. With the pretty top-halfs, cut into fork-size pieces so that at least half are clearly spear-shaped tops. Marinate overnight.

Martha's table

Clockwise from top: Jill, John, Betty, Ezra, Nicole, Jeanie, Frances, Jason, Martha, David




Lorelei, RG, Nicole, Frances, Jason, Rachel, Marsha, David, John